US and China stockmarkets, huge divergence

One year until yesterday, US vs China stocks, below.

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What does this mean: that global investors have rising trust of the US economy but flat or rising distrust of the China economy? More trust in Trump policies but less trust in Xi policies?

I checked CNN and BBC’s business sections, seems they did not make any report of this. NYT has one. https://www.nytimes.com/…/19reuters-usa-stocks.html

CNN, BBC, NYT, others are among the top anti-Trump media outlets.

The report says it’s the tech and health companies that were the main attractors,  http://www.foxbusiness.com/…/wall-st-hits-record-highs

Then there’s this news, “Oil falls to seven-month low on more signs of growing crude glut.” This could mean that US shale producers are gaining the upperhand over OPEC countries, so back to low world oil prices. I’m waiting for sustained below $40/barrel in the coming few weeks or months. http://www.foxbusiness.com/…/oil-falls-to-seven-month

I checked Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, while the China stocks are declining, HK’s are rising, faster than the growth in US stocks actually.

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I am a non-finance guy so I asked several friends about this development, including my friend in HK, Andrew S. if this means that there is a growing divergence in investor trust between the economies of the mainland and the HK SAR.

Andrew offered a different perspective. He said that “Of the 10 biggest companies that make up the hang Seng index.  Probably less than 5% of their combined revenue/profit comes from Hong Kong.  The Hang Seng Index is of zero value as a reflection of HK’s economy.”

I’m inclined to believe that the HK stock market has a positive, non-zero value to the overall HK economy because there is more rule of law, more policy stability in HK market than say, the PH or TH or ID or MY markets.

Mr. Trump has been making plenty of economic, fiscal, energy policies that almost reverse the 8-yrs policies of Mr. Obama. I am curious if Trump’s policies were factored in positively by investors in the US stock market. Like the recent decline in world oil prices as reflection that Trump’s energy policies are doing positively for the US. Shale oil frackers, coal producers, they are improving. And manufacturing, transport firms that are energy-intensive like airlines.

From a WSJ oped last week, June 15:

“Remember the “energy independence” preoccupation of not so long ago? The U.S. is now emerging as the world’s energy superpower and U.S. oil and gas exports are rebalancing global markets. More remarkable still, this dominance was achieved by private U.S. investment, innovation and trade—not Washington central planning.

Thanks largely to the domestic hydraulic fracturing revolution, the U.S. has been the world’s top natural gas producer since 2009, passing Russia, and the top producer of oil and petroleum hydrocarbons since 2014, passing Saudi Arabia.

Trump’s reversal of Obama energy policies is a big contributor to this. More shale gas and oil, more coal, production and exports. To surpass Russia in gas production and surpass Saudi Arabia in oil production is one big achievement.

From the reports, biggest gainers yesterday were some pharma firms since Trump is trying to get rid of Obamacare. Like United Health Group, up 14.5% since Nov 6 2016.

Meanwhile, China’s market is “very very expensive for a long while” according to another friend, Peter A. This means the bubble is slowly crashing already? Hard to predict because China’s communist government will never allow Freedom of information, will hide the real data.

More globalization means more mobility of capital, labor and technology to markets worldwide that have more rule of law.

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Top 10 news of 2016

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last December 27, 2016.

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Since government by nature consists of force and coercion, legislation and regulation, mandatory contribution and taxation, it naturally creates division among people anywhere in the world. Those who benefit from welfarism are happy while those who are affected by endless regulations and taxation express the opposite sentiment.

Below is my list of top 10 news around the world in 2016, five international and five national/regional.

INTERNATIONAL

1 “Brexit.” British voters opted last June to exit from the European Union (EU), a regional government that allows free trade and free mobility of people and services among member-states, but also imposes various protectionism and restrictions on goods and people mobility to countries outside the EU. This combination of free trade and trade protectionism, simpler migration for fellow EU citizens but difficult migration for non-EU people, tax harmonization and prevention of tax competition among member states, among others, have created confusion and even more animosity among the British. So far nothing is definite and details of the exit may not be known until 2019.

2 Trump victory. A big businessman without past political position but employed an unconventional campaign, President-elect Donald Trump outlasted 16 Republican rivals and then a famous Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. Not being part of the entrenched political establishment, he is known more to reverse the various regulations and high taxation policies of the Obama and Bush administrations. For instance, he plans to cut the US corporate income tax from 35% to 15%, reverse the anti-coal, anti-oil sentiments and policies, and so on.

3 Terrorist attacks in Europe. Massacres in a newspaper office and rock concert in Paris, airport bombing in Brussels, lorry attack of people in the streets of Nice, France during a Bastille Day celebration, another lorry attack of people in a Christmas shopping in Berlin. Plus some foiled attacks in other cities in Europe. To fight this kind of war, governments will need less of those deadly fighter planes, huge battle tanks and ships. Instead, they will need more drones, CCTVs, crawling small robots, cyberware. The fight is not country to country but house to house, building to buildings.

4 Syria. Endless war among many armed factions has resulted in large-scale murders and displacement by the millions. Aleppo has become the main reference point of why civil war by some proxy countries should be avoided as much as possible. The volume of civilian deaths and destruction of properties is so big.

5 Malaysia and South Korea. Big governments always invite big opportunities for big corruption and wastes, the degree just vary from country to country. In particular, the corruption scandals of Malaysian PM Najib Razak over IMDB and S. Korean President Park Geun-hye over her friend Choi Soon-sil’s involvement in government affairs have pushed their people to conduct various rallies calling for their resignations. And these leaders continue to cling to power.

PHILIPPINES

6 Duterte victory. President Rodrigo Duterte was the first Mayor to move straight to Presidency with a different campaign strategy focused on fighting criminality, drug proliferation, and corruption. Unlike the three other major candidates — former VP Jojo Binay, Sec. Mar Roxas, and Sen. Grace Poe — who all focused on more welfarism. And he got huge support from the poor, which shows that the poor are not exactly asking for more welfarism and subsidies, but are seeking increased peace and order to protect themselves against thieves, murderers, rapists, drug pushers, corrupt officials, and other criminals.

7 Drug deaths. From a campaign promise of killing 100,000 criminals if he wins, President Duterte later mentioned that “like Hitler, (I will) annihilate 3 million drug criminals.” The on-going “war on drugs” has resulted in several thousand murders so far, about one-third from police operations and two-third from vigilante-type of executions. The rule of law and its long process of police investigation and court proceedings have been sidestepped.

8 PI Obama, Pakyu EU. Before and during the ASEAN summit and related meetings last September, President Duterte has directly or indirectly lashed out against US President Obama who attended the event in Laos. President Obama and later the EU have voiced criticism over the high number of deaths and disrespect for the rule of law, not the drugs war per se. President Duterte and his avid supporters did not make a distinction between these two and thus, the expletives and harsh words. These were reported heavily in international media.

9 Marcos burial at Heroes’ Cemetery. The sneaky burial of former President Ferdinand Marcos at the Libingan ng mga Bayani has stirred some political upheavals that many protest rallies were held in Metro Manila and key cities in the country. Since the burial is supported by President Duterte and affirmed by the Supreme Court, the cemetery may better be renamed “Libingan ng mga Bayani at Magnanakaw” (LBM).

10 Non-assertion of territorial rights at SCS/WPS. Mid-December, the President said the Philippines and China can “share” oil in the disputed territories in South China Sea/West Philippine Sea despite an international arbitral award affirming the Philippines’ ownership in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

From this list, it seems that many people around the world are dissatisfied and disappointed with more government, more regulations, taxation and corruption. Authorities should deliver positive results in areas where stronger government is justified, to protect the people’s right to life, right to private property and right to liberty.